Welcome to Bet!

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Welcome to Bet

Hey everyone, thanks for checking out my sports betting newsletter and subscribing! This is something I’ve wanted to start for months and decided to finally take the leap and put it together. First, let’s talk about what you can expect in this newsletter. There’s so much noise out there in sports betting on X, Instagram, TikTok, podcasts, YouTube, etc. Then you have sportsbooks posting 5-leg parlays to promote these losing bets and claiming how you can win all this money. But then as soon as you win a little bit and they believe you’re a “sharp bettor,” they limit you. The sportsbooks lie, the touts lie and it just becomes a sea of white noise. I will keep you up to date on all this news, rumors and happenings in the industry and give my take on all of it.

There’s no question that Twitter/X becomes a cesspool of Twitter battles between touts, pros, amateurs, content creators, fake touts and even bookmakers. And I love it haha. I’ll be covering and recapping Twitter beefs between all the big names in the industry.

Also, if you’ve followed me for any time on X (@annoyedpitboss), you know I hate parlays. They are losing bets and the odds never make sense. Unfortunately, they are wildly popular and the sportsbooks love promoting them so that’s how you know it’s profitable for the book. I’ll continue to steer people away from parlays and help folks gamble responsibly in this racket.

As for frequency of this newsletter, I plan on releasing one each week but if something major happens or something I want to talk about comes up, I’ll release more as needed.

Thank you for supporting me in this new endeavor, it means a lot to me. I hope you enjoy the content!

THE OPENER
ESPN Touts Dolan’s Suspect Record

There’s no shortage of touts, handiscammers and pretty faces on social media today to tell you what to bet, how to bet and how great they’ve been this season. They toss out crazy winning records that are no doubt inflated or just plain made up. We’ve come to expect that noise from all types of accounts, but even ESPN is apparently getting in on the game:

This tweet from Thursday set off a fire storm of backlash from pros and amateurs alike as they questioned Erin Dolan’s 68.8% winning percentage from December 2021 till now. Especially with ESPN being a massive network and also in the sportsbook game with ESPN Bet. The accuracy of her record had everyone ringing in with their opinion…

Any reference to Vegas Dave gets me laughing so that was a good one from AP. I was waiting for someone to fact check her record, but no one has that I’ve seen yet and even if they did, the likelihood of it being accurate is low because of deleted tweets and what not that I’m sure ESPN would try to “protect” this record. Just doing a quick scroll through her feed on X doesn’t show many picks besides stupid anytime TD parlays that didn’t hit (go figure) and apparently all her “ESPN Bet Live Best Bets” were live on ESPN2 so tough to go back and parse it now. Just like 99% of this garbage content out there, I believe this record is all bullshit. What do you think about Erin Dolan’s supposed record?

BET ODDS
Fezzik 2nd Level Pro Thinking Strikes Again

Steve Fezzik is a professional gambler, I’m sure you’ve seen him on social media and VSiN talking sports betting. Steve knows his stuff and I do believe he’s a winning bettor over the years, but his shtick on Twitter/X gets a little old from time to time especially to the recreational bettor. His tweets usually get people stirred up and this one from Saturday is the latest in long line of his “Masterclasses”…

Now, I get what Fezzik is saying here, but I don’t think the recreational bettor really gives a shit to be honest. Most sports bettors don’t have money on 37 sportsbooks at once so when the market moves a line, you can go shop a better line or odds. Pros who have money on every sportsbook and have the time to monitor line movement like a hawk and take advantage when something moves, then good for them but that’s just not the case with most of Twitter. And it’s like just give me a team or a game you like and we’ll go from there. If I like the Vikings -7 to win and cover Monday night against the Bears, I probably like them almost the same at -7.5 or -8. Lines move all the time, sometimes you get the better number and other times you get a bad number. It happens. That’s why I try to look at a game and see when a market is overvaluing or undervaluing a team based off the line currently available and attack it from there.

My rule of thumb in waiting to bet a team over the years has been if you like the favorite, bet it early in the week. And if you like the underdog, wait till nearly game time to bet them. It’s simply because generally the public is backing the favorite and their line will move from opening line throughout the week to the closing line. This second level pro thinking Fezzik throws out there is fine, but don’t argue with your recreational followers about it after, they likely just want leans and picks and aren’t sweating a -110 to -115 line.

Also not to pick on Fezzik all newsletter, but I found this tweet funny too. Yes Steve, we know Brad Powers is the much better sports gambler but we all know why Taylor has more followers. Come on man LOL. That’s just the way it is in today’s world on social media.

CIRCA MILLION UPDATE
Season Record: 38-32 (54.3%)

This is my third season participating in the Circa Million contest where you pick five games each NFL week by the spread. Top 100 cashes along with quarterly winners as well. Join me in my journey this season to grind my way to some prize money.

After my thrilling 5-0 Week 12, I’ve given it back the past two weeks. I followed up an undefeated week with a dismal 1-4 week and then continued the slide last week with a 2-3 performance thanks to the Chiefs laying down inside the 10 yard line and settling for a game-winning FG. Here were my five picks:

• Giants +4.5 ✅

• Raiders +7 ❌

• Dolphins -5.5 ✅

• Cardinals -3 ❌

• Chiefs -4 ❌

Giants defense showed up at home and stayed within the number despite Drew Lock doing nothing with the Giants offense. Raiders were covering at halftime, but once O’Connell went down and Desmond Ridder entered the game, I knew I was cooked. Raiders couldn’t score a TD in second half with Ridder at the helm. I was unlucky in the Chiefs game, but I definitely benefited and got lucky in the Dolphins game as they were trailing late, tied it up, got the 2-point conversion to force OT, won the coin toss and scored the TD to cover by a half point. We will take it! I thought the Cardinals would bounce back last weekend, but they didn’t…it was just a bad week by me. And then the Chiefs not playing for the TD on Sunday night was the difference from a 3-2 to 2-3 week. And that’s a big difference in the grand scheme of things. There’s four weeks left in the season and I’m grinding to try and get back to 60% and hopefully cash in the top 100.

Anyone else in the Circa Million this season? The lines for this week are below. Panthers first time as a favorite in like 30+ games 👀

Closing

That’s it for my first Bet newsletter! Hope you all enjoyed it and feel free to message me on X with comments or suggestions on what you’d like to see on here each week. And if you would be so kind, share this with that degenerate friend of yours that you’d think might enjoy it. I appreciate it! I’ll be messing with the platform as well to improve things until I get the formatting exactly how I want it so bare with me until then. Thanks and have a great sports betting week!

-APB